GROUP A PREVIEW
With the big kick-off only ten days away, Tom Moss begins his look at the eight first-round groups with a preview of Group A, which consists of holders South Africa along with past winners France and Uruguay who last lifted the famous trophy in 1998 and 1950 respectively. The group is completed by Mexico who will be looking to get past the last-16 for the first time since 1986.
FRANCE: Irish fans can’t but wonder what might have been had they scraped past the French back in November, and in one of the most wide-open groups in the competition, we would have had as good a chance as any other side to advance. Since his infamous handball to tee up William Gallas, Thierry Henry has taken a backstage role in his side’s World Cup preparations and is unlikely to command a starting place for their first group game next Friday against Uruguay.
But the French still bring with them a squad boasting several world-class stars and a wealth of experience on the big-stage. Unfortunately for the majority of French fans, they also bring with them the restrictive force that is coach Raymond Domenech, a widely-criticised eccentric who seems intent on hindering rather than helping his side’s bid for a second World Cup title. Having reached the final last time out, they can’t be overlooked but Domemech ruffled more than a few cockerels feathers with the omission of Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema and the refusal to call up a replacement for Lass Diarra is an indication of the kind of loose cannon the French boss can be. Remember, this is a guy who tries to steer clear of any players under the star signs that supposedly conflict with his own, so expect the unexpected from Domenech who will stand down after this campaign.
Despite some eyebrow-raising decisions to date, Domenech’s increased experimentation with a more attacking system has won plaudits amongst his squad players and they should have more than enough to come out of this group.
PROBABLE STARTING XI:
1. Hugo Lloris, 2. Bacary Sagna, 3. Patrice Evra, 4. Eric Abidal, 5. William Gallas, 6.Alou Diarra, 7. Yoann Gourcuff, 8. Jeremy Toulalan, 9. Nicolas Anelka, 10. Andre-Pierre Gignac, 11. Franck Ribery.
KEY MAN: FRANCK RIBERY – If the Bayern man can recreate the form that has seen all the top clubs scampering for his signature over the past two years, France will have one of the most lethal attacking players in the tournament. Having just signed a new deal with the German giants, Ribery should have a clear mind and could well be the man to fire his side into the latter stages.
ONE TO WATCH: ANDRE-PIERRE GIGNAC – The Toulouse frontman came to the attentions of top Premier League clubs with a prolific 2008-09 season where he bagged 24 goals in 38 games, but slipped back somewhat this year, netting only 8 times. Still, he has the physique and the ability to pose problems for most defences and a few early goals could spring the 24-year old to life.
STRENGTHS: A look at their probable back-line points to an experienced and reliable defence that carries a serious attacking threat also. If Domenech retains his recently-used 4-3-3 system, his midfield also has the experience to drive his side on.
WEAKNESSES: Apart from Domenech himself, the lack of an out-an-out goalscoring predator may cost the French dear. Anelka, Ribery and Gignac all have their qualities but since Henry’s hay-day, the French have yet to find an instinctive out-and-out goal machine.
SOUTH AFRICA: The host nation have the unwanted tag as the lowest ranked hosts in World Cup history, and their status just inside the top 100 suggests that the Banafa Banafa will do well to advance beyond the group stages. The noisy support that they will receive will help, as will the almost-inevitable hometown refereeing decision or two, but they look to be the weakest side in the group and it may be beyond them to pip either Uruguay or Mexico.
Head coach Carlos Alberto Parreira has past World Cup success with Brazil, but the much-travelled boss will have to make do with a much less gifted squad of players than the one that he guided to World Cup glory back in 1994. Premier League fans will recognise some names, with the likes of Steven Pienaar and Aaron Makoena in the ranks, but Benni McCarthy won’t travel having failed to convince Parreira of his fitness.
Makoena, the captain of the side, became the first South African to reach 100 caps in their 5-0 win over Guatamala yesterday, which was also a record win for the Bafana Bafana (which means Boys Boys in the local dialect, or alternatively Don’t Have A Prayer in English), but despite these promising landmarks, I can see an early exit for the hosts, which would be another record, as no other host nation have as yet fell at the first hurdle.
PROBABLE STARTING XI:
1. Itumeleng Khune, 2. Siboniso Gaxa, 3. Tsepo Masilela, 4. Aaron Makoena, 5. Matthew Booth, 6. Macbeth Sibaya, 7. Kagisho Dikgacoi, 8. Teko Modise, 9. Katlego Mphela, 10. Bernard Parker, 11. Steven Pienaar.
KEY MAN: STEVEN PIENAAR – After an impressive Premier League campaign for Everton, Pienaar will be the man that most home fans will look to if they are to unlock the opposition defences. It remains to be seen how Pienaar copes with the burden of expectations placed firmly on his shoulders, but there is no doubt that he has the ability to pose problems for any side.
ONE TO WATCH : BERNARD PARKER – Although Parker failed to find the net in ten starts for Steve McLaren’s championship winning FC Twente side, the young striker has caught the eye for his country before, most notably in last years Confederations Cup, and Carlos Alberto Parreira’s hopes of advancing to the last 16 may be pinned on Parker’s ability to build on his nine international goals to date.
STRENGTHS: Home support can never be underestimated, and the South Africans will enjoy a very vocal and colourful support in their group games. Whether they react positively to this remains to be seen but their home advantage represents the Banafa Banafa’s best hopes of causing a surprise.
WEAKNESSES: A weak squad can only be brought so far, and even Carlos Alberto Parreira and a hundred thousand baying South Africans cannot compensate for the lack of quality that cripples this side. I would be very surprised if they overturn either Uruguay or France, and the opening game against Mexico may be their only chance to gain points.
URUGUAY: Two-times champions Uruguay have struggled to capture anything like their former glory in recent World Cups and their only appearance since Italia ’90 ended in a first-round exit in the 2002 tournament. But they have bounced back to some extent and travel to South Africa with quiet hopes of causing a few shocks along the way.
Head coach Oscar Tabarez has a strong-looking squad with experience and talent in almost every department, and I can see the unfancied Uruguayans topping this group. Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan form a potent striking partnership and with a perfect blend of youth and experience, Tabarez’s men are in good stead coming into the competition.
PROBABLE STARI NG XI:
1. Fernando Muslera, 2. Jorge Fucile, 3. Martin Caceras, 4. Diego Lugano, 5. Diego Godin, 6. Walter Gargano, 7. Nicolas Lodeiro, 8. Sebastian Eguren, 9. Diego Forlan, 10. Luis Suarez, 11. Edinson Cavani.
KEY MAN: DIEGO FORLAN – The ex-Man Utd. Frontman has been the toast of Spanish football since his return and has been in prolific goalscoring form over the past three seasons. Forlan’s threat could be the key to their fortunes.
ONE TO WATCH – NICOLAS LODEIRO – Lodeiro has been given the number 14 jersey for the competition but I expect him to play a pivotal role in Uruguay’s campaign. His club form with Nacional led several European clubs including Juventus and Napoli to seek his services but he decided to sign for Ajax in January and the midfielder has a huge future ahead of him. An impressive World Cup should make Lodeiro a household name quite soon.
STRENGTHS: With a strike partnership worthy of any major team, Forlan and Suarez are both in great club form and will be a major thorn in the sides of all three first round opponents.
WEAKNESSES: Uruguay are one of the most notoriously ill-disciplined nations, and this current crop of players are no different. I would be surprised if they finished more than one of their opening games with the full compliment of players, and this could be their downfall.
MEXICO Peppered with instantly recognisable star names, Mexican boss Javier Aguirre has a strong squad to choose from. Going through a revival of late, the Mexicans have the ability to cause problems, and they will see the game with Uruguay as the key game. They open the tournament with their clash with hosts South Africa next Friday and will be looking to cause immediate disappointment to the inevitably vociferous home support. If they can come through that potential Bafana-skin (pun intended!), they stand a good chance of making it through.
PROBABLE STARTING XI:
1. Guillermo Ochoa, 2. Jonny Magallon, 3. Carlos Calcido, 4. Rafael Marquez, 5. Francisco Rodriguez, 6. Andres Guardado, 7. Gerardo Torrado, 8. Israel Castro, 9. Carlos Vela, 10. Javier Hernandez, 11. Giovanni Dos Santos.
KEY MAN: ANDRES GUARDADO – With an array of attacking options, it may rest on Guardado to stifle the opposition, and the Deportivo midefielder is more than capable to do just that. Depor parted with seven million euro to bring the youngster to La Liga in 2007, and a further step up awaits if he continues his fine form for his country.
ONE TO WATCH: JAVIER HERNANDEZ – Alex Ferguson rarely splashes out big money on a relatively unproven youngster, but he has obviously been watching Hernandez very closely over the last few years. The 22 year-old striker netted 26 times for Guadalajra before Ferguson stepped in to bring him to Old Trafford, and with seven goals in eleven caps for Mexico, Hernandez is tipped as one of the hottest young prospects in world football.
STRENGTHS: A very experienced defence including the likes of Marquez and Calcido will be a strong base upon which the dynamic Mexican attack will look to cause problems from.
WEAKNESSES: Javier Aguirre has been heavily criticised for his unbalanced squad that contains seven recognised forwards but only three out and out midfielders. That decision could come back to haunt them should injuries or suspensions occur, and it may also leave the Mexicans exposed against the proficient attackers that both France and Uruguay boast.
OUTRIGHT BETTING: GROUP BETTING:
FRANCE – 18/1 FRANCE – Evens
MEXICO – 80/1 MEXICO – 10/3
URUGUAY – 100/1 URUGUAY – 7/2
SOUTH AFRICA – 150/1 SOUTH AFRICA – 11/2
MY PREDICTION : France are clear favourites and on paper they have a squad capable of doing very well. They don’t always play like they should however, undoubtedly as a result of Domenech’s strange influence on his team. I can see them struggling in the opening round, but they should have enough to advance. I can see Uruguay beating both South Africa and Mexico and nicking a draw against the French, with Mexico matching that. The opening game between Mexico and South Africa could end in a draw and those dropped points will deny the Mexicans a place in the next round.
1. Uruguay 7pts
2. France 5pts
3. Mexico 2pts
4. South Africa 1pt
